Bob Cropf

Archive for the ‘stimulus’ Category

Did Obama’s team incorrectly diagnose the economic crisis?

In Keynesianism, Obama, stimulus on May 4, 2009 at 1:34 PM

In the April/May issue of the liberal-leaning Washington Monthly, James K. Galbraith writes that the team behind Obama’s economic recovery plans all share the same background and creed (you can find the article online here.). The problem with that, according to Galbraith, is that this leads to severe limitations in their vision of the possibilities of the economy.

Geithner, Summers, Romer, Orszag, et al. all share the underlying belief that the economy will right itself. The chief difference between Obama’s economic team and conservatives, however, is that Obama’s advisers believe that the economy needs a little help from the government to get back whereas economic conservatives assert that such help would actually do more harm than good. Galbraith argues that this could lead to a weak approach to fixing the current mess:

“If recovery is not built into the genes of the system, then the forecast will be too optimistic, and the stimulus based on it will be too small.”

Interesting point: The article claims that the hopes for a quick recovery are based on the assumption that this recession will be no worse than the 1981-82 downturn, the worst in recent history. However, if this is not the case, then the models that have been used to predict a rapid turnaround would be wrong.

If we discard as “normal,” postwar economic experience, then there might not be a near-term recovery at all. A strong argument could be made that the situation we now find ourselves in is vastly different from the postwar economic regime that we are familiar with.

Galbraith argues that Geithner, Summers, et al. are primarily concerned with restoring the pre-crash economic order, which was built on the predominance of private banks. Galbraith quotes the Treasury Secretary, Geithner as telling CNBC:

“We have a financial system that is run by private shareholders, managed by private institutions, and we’d like to do our best to preserve that system.”

In the past, economic downturns were shallow enough to permit a bank-led recovery. However, this time things are radically different, according to Galbraith. Millions of families have lost a huge proportion of their wealth. As a dire consequence, for many Americans, Social Security and Medicare represent their chief source of wealth.On top of that, the nation’s largest banks are bankrupt or nearly so. Thus, any attempt to restore the pre-crisis regime is automatically doomed to failure.

The article goes on to say much more. Galbraith is a respected economist, who holds a prestigious chair in Government/Business Relations at LBJ School of Public Affairs, University of Texas at Austin, so he is someone whose words count for something in Washington, DC.

I bring it to the class’ attention because while much of the mainstream media focuses on the conservative attacks on the Obama economic plan, there is also a liberal critique that has not received quite as much attention. Galbraith is a good example of the “loyal opposition” within the left.

RC

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Missouri’s stake in the stimulus

In Keynesianism, stimulus on February 28, 2009 at 12:26 PM

What Obama’s Economic Stimulus Package will mean for Missourians

Below is an article, which I just sent off to the St Louis Beacon, an online news publication.

Last month, Congress passed and President Obama signed into law a historic economic stimulus package that will spend $787 billion in the hopes of pulling the US out of the recession. The package has several parts. It will spend $260 billion over ten years to assist families with their taxes, buying a first-time home, paying college tuitions, extension of unemployment benefits and car purchases. More than $80 billion has been set aside to modernize infrastructure including transportation, federal buildings and water projects.Nearly $130 billion will be spent on expanding health care including boosting benefits for laid-off workers and to assist states with their Medicaid payments. Education receives more than $100 billion, with funds set aside for direct payments to local school districts and billions of dollars for school modernization, Pell Grants and special ed programs. The rest of the package is devoted to helping alternative energy production ($22 billion), investments in scientific research ($18 billion) and small business ($54 billion). These are all nationwide totals; what does the package mean for Missouri residents?

A new report issued by the non-partisan Missouri Budget Project estimates that the Economic Recovery Act will primarily help low- and middle-income Missouri families. The report also says the Act will help stimulate the state’s faltering economy.

The Missouri Budget Project’s analysis of the stimulus package has estimated that the state will recieve more than $4.3 billion over the next two years. This amount will be divided into three components: 1) state services, allocated by the Missouri General Assembly, 2) education, a direct transfer to local school districts, and 3) families, a direct subsidy to households hit hardest by the recession. Within each of these components, the spending stacks up this way:

1. State Services (more for health care including a Temporary Increase in the Federal Matching Rate in Medicaid, an increase in highway and public transit funding, more funds for the state to help pay for public safety, law enforcement, services for the elderly and the disabled, as well as money for Child Care services.)
2. Education (growth in spending on Title I, Education Block Grant funds and K-12 and Higher Ed funding)
3. Families (increases in Unemployment Insurance Benefits, funding for Emergency Shelters, and more money for Food Stamps.)

Not only will the billions in anticipated spending directly help Missouri families, the infusion of federal money into the state’s flagging economy will provide a much needed boost. As consumer spending dips, business profits drop off and state government revenues decline, which results in falling demand for goods and services starting the destructive cycle up again. Federal funds will produce a multiplier effect, in other words, for each new dollar invested in the state, a significant amount of new economic activity is expected.

Perhaps the best way to explain the multiplier effect of federal spending is to illustrate with an example. Imagine a currently unemployed construction worker who, as a result of the package’s infrastructure spending, is put back to work on a public transit project. With the wages earned, the worker can make a down payment on a new house, buy groceries and otherwise spend money that would go to stimulating the state’s economy, producing more jobs, more spending and more state revenues.

In sum, the Missouri Budget Project calculates that the multiplier effect will produce a $7.7 billion increase in the Gross State Product, will create 98,000 new jobs, and add $275 million to Missouri’s state revenues over the next two years.

Of course, in a plan of this magnitude there are always skeptics. The chief arguments against the package include more government spending will not end the recession and consumer, not government, spending is the way to get the economy back on track. In the case of the first one, critics assert that much of the government spending in the stimulus package will not have an immediate effect (e.g., infrastructure projects). Therefore, by the time money on these projects is spent, the economic recovery will be well underway. However, this argument assumes the typical long “start-up” times of most capital projects and ignores the fact that in many states there is already a back-log of “shovel ready” infrastructure projects, which have had to be shelved because of the states’ inability to finance them on their own and the recent federal cut-backs in funding. Furthermore, helping to rebuild the nation’s infrastructure, is a long over-due investment in our economic future. Not only does it generate new jobs by the millions, it also ensures economic growth in the years ahead.

The second argument assumes that the multiplier effect for government spending is less than one for privately-generated consumer demand. An example of this can be found in the following blog, Organizations and Markets , by four free-market economists. In a recent post, one of the authors says:

Of course, if GDP is adjusted for quality, the multipler [sic] is most likely negative, as resource allocation is directed by government officials, not consumer demands.

According to this perspective, only the production and consumption of iPods, cars, and similar private goods rather than public goods such as bridges, schools, roads, and libraries, results in “quality adjusted” GDP. Presumably, the author would take issue with Bureau of Economic Analysis of the U.S. Department of Commerce, which estimates additional economic activity that results from investments in different sectors in the $1.58 to $2.08 range. However, as the above quote indicates, free-market economics automatically discounts the possibility that public investments can have a positive effect even before the evidence is in.

It would certainly not be in the best interests of the state if the legislature were to follow the lead of the governors of some states and refuse federal money for some programs. Fortunately, Gov Jay Nixon shows every indication that he wants every federal dollar that the state is entitled to.

Text of President’s speech on foreclosures

In economics, Obama, stimulus on February 18, 2009 at 7:54 AM

TEXT
President Obama’s Remarks on the Homeowner Affordability and Stability Plan

Following is the text of President Obama’s remarks in Arizona, as prepared for delivery and provided by The White House.

I’m here today to talk about a crisis unlike any we’ve ever known – but one that you know very well here in Mesa, and throughout the Valley. In Phoenix and its surrounding suburbs, the American Dream is being tested by a home mortgage crisis that not only threatens the stability of our economy but also the stability of families and neighborhoods. It is a crisis that strikes at the heart of the middle class: the homes in which we invest our savings, build our lives, raise our families, and plant roots in our communities.

So many Americans have shared with me their personal experiences of this crisis. Many have written letters or emails or shared their stories with me at rallies and along rope lines. Their hardship and heartbreak are a reminder that while this crisis is vast, it begins just one house – and one family – at a time.

It begins with a young family – maybe in Mesa, or Glendale, or Tempe – or just as likely in suburban Las Vegas, Cleveland, or Miami. They save up. They search. They choose a home that feels like the perfect place to start a life. They secure a fixed-rate mortgage at a reasonable rate, make a down payment, and make their mortgage payments each month. They are as responsible as anyone could ask them to be.

But then they learn that acting responsibly often isn’t enough to escape this crisis. Perhaps someone loses a job in the latest round of layoffs, one of more than three and a half million jobs lost since this recession began – or maybe a child gets sick, or a spouse has his or her hours cut.

In the past, if you found yourself in a situation like this, you could have sold your home and bought a smaller one with more affordable payments. Or you could have refinanced your home at a lower rate. But today, home values have fallen so sharply that even if you made a large down payment, the current value of your mortgage may still be higher than the current value of your house. So no bank will return your calls, and no sale will return your investment.

You can’t afford to leave and you can’t afford to stay. So you cut back on luxuries. Then you cut back on necessities. You spend down your savings to keep up with your payments. Then you open the retirement fund. Then you use the credit cards. And when you’ve gone through everything you have, and done everything you can, you have no choice but to default on your loan. And so your home joins the nearly six million others in foreclosure or at risk of foreclosure across the country, including roughly 150,000 right here in Arizona.

But the foreclosures which are uprooting families and upending lives across America are only one part of this housing crisis. For while there are millions of families who face foreclosure, there are millions more who are in no danger of losing their homes, but who have still seen their dreams endangered. They are families who see “For Sale” signs lining the streets. Who see neighbors leave, and homes standing vacant, and lawns slowly turning brown. They see their own homes – their largest single assets – plummeting in value. One study in Chicago found that a foreclosed home reduces the price of nearby homes by as much as 9 percent. Home prices in cities across the country have fallen by more than 25 percent since 2006; in Phoenix, they’ve fallen by 43 percent.

Even if your neighborhood hasn’t been hit by foreclosures, you’re likely feeling the effects of the crisis in other ways. Companies in your community that depend on the housing market – construction companies and home furnishing stores, painters and landscapers – they’re cutting back and laying people off. The number of residential construction jobs has fallen by more than a quarter million since mid-2006. As businesses lose revenue and people lose income, the tax base shrinks, which means less money for schools and police and fire departments. And on top of this, the costs to a local government associated with a single foreclosure can be as high as $20,000.

The effects of this crisis have also reverberated across the financial markets. When the housing market collapsed, so did the availability of credit on which our economy depends. As that credit has dried up, it has been harder for families to find affordable loans to purchase a car or pay tuition and harder for businesses to secure the capital they need to expand and create jobs.

In the end, all of us are paying a price for this home mortgage crisis. And all of us will pay an even steeper price if we allow this crisis to deepen – a crisis which is unraveling homeownership, the middle class, and the American Dream itself. But if we act boldly and swiftly to arrest this downward spiral, every American will benefit. And that’s what I want to talk about today.

The plan I’m announcing focuses on rescuing families who have played by the rules and acted responsibly: by refinancing loans for millions of families in traditional mortgages who are underwater or close to it; by modifying loans for families stuck in sub-prime mortgages they can’t afford as a result of skyrocketing interest rates or personal misfortune; and by taking broader steps to keep mortgage rates low so that families can secure loans with affordable monthly payments.

At the same time, this plan must be viewed in a larger context. A lost home often begins with a lost job. Many businesses have laid off workers for a lack of revenue and available capital. Credit has become scarce as the markets have been overwhelmed by the collapse of securities backed by failing mortgages. In the end, the home mortgage crisis, the financial crisis, and this broader economic crisis are interconnected. We cannot successfully address any one of them without addressing them all.

Yesterday, in Denver, I signed into law the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act which will create or save three and a half million jobs over the next two years – including 70,000 in Arizona – doing the work America needs done. We will also work to stabilize, repair, and reform our financial system to get credit flowing again to families and businesses. And we will pursue the housing plan I am outlining today.

Through this plan, we will help between seven and nine million families restructure or refinance their mortgages so they can avoid foreclosure. And we are not just helping homeowners at risk of falling over the edge, we are preventing their neighbors from being pulled over that edge too – as defaults and foreclosures contribute to sinking home values, failing local businesses, and lost jobs.

But I also want to be very clear about what this plan will not do: It will not rescue the unscrupulous or irresponsible by throwing good taxpayer money after bad loans. It will not help speculators who took risky bets on a rising market and bought homes not to live in but to sell. It will not help dishonest lenders who acted irresponsibility, distorting the facts and dismissing the fine print at the expense of buyers who didn’t know better. And it will not reward folks who bought homes they knew from the beginning they would never be able to afford. In short, this plan will not save every home.

But it will give millions of families resigned to financial ruin a chance to rebuild. It will prevent the worst consequences of this crisis from wreaking even greater havoc on the economy. And by bringing down the foreclosure rate, it will help to shore up housing prices for everyone. According to estimates by the Treasury Department, this plan could stop the slide in home prices due to neighboring foreclosures by up to $6,000 per home.

Here is how my plan works:

First, we will make it possible for an estimated four to five million currently ineligible homeowners who receive their mortgages through Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac to refinance their mortgages at lower rates.

Today, as a result of declining home values, millions of families are “underwater,” which means they owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth. These families are unable to sell their homes, and unable to refinance them. So in the event of a job loss or another emergency, their options are limited.

Right now, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac – the institutions that guarantee home loans for millions of middle class families – are generally not permitted to guarantee refinancing for mortgages valued at more than 80 percent of the home’s worth. So families who are underwater – or close to being underwater – cannot turn to these lending institutions for help.

My plan changes that by removing this restriction on Fannie and Freddie so that they can refinance mortgages they already own or guarantee. This will allow millions of families stuck with loans at a higher rate to refinance. And the estimated cost to taxpayers would be roughly zero; while Fannie and Freddie would receive less money in payments, this would be balanced out by a reduction in defaults and foreclosures.

I also want to point out that millions of other households could benefit from historically low interest rates if they refinance, though many don’t know that this opportunity is available to them – an opportunity that could save families hundreds of dollars each month. And the efforts we are taking to stabilize mortgage markets will help these borrowers to secure more affordable terms, too.

Second, we will create new incentives so that lenders work with borrowers to modify the terms of sub-prime loans at risk of default and foreclosure.

Sub-prime loans – loans with high rates and complex terms that often conceal their costs – make up only 12 percent of all mortgages, but account for roughly half of all foreclosures.

Right now, when families with these mortgages seek to modify a loan to avoid this fate, they often find themselves navigating a maze of rules and regulations but rarely finding answers. Some sub-prime lenders are willing to renegotiate; many aren’t. Your ability to restructure your loan depends on where you live, the company that owns or manages your loan, or even the agent who happens to answer the phone on the day you call.

My plan establishes clear guidelines for the entire mortgage industry that will encourage lenders to modify mortgages on primary residences. Any institution that wishes to receive financial assistance from the government, and to modify home mortgages, will have to do so according to these guidelines – which will be in place two weeks from today.

If lenders and homebuyers work together, and the lender agrees to offer rates that the borrower can afford, we’ll make up part of the gap between what the old payments were and what the new payments will be. And under this plan, lenders who participate will be required to reduce those payments to no more than 31 percent of a borrower’s income. This will enable as many as three to four million homeowners to modify the terms of their mortgages to avoid foreclosure.

So this part of the plan will require both buyers and lenders to step up and do their part. Lenders will need to lower interest rates and share in the costs of reduced monthly payments in order to prevent another wave of foreclosures. Borrowers will be required to make payments on time in return for this opportunity to reduce those payments.

I also want to be clear that there will be a cost associated with this plan. But by making these investments in foreclosure-prevention today, we will save ourselves the costs of foreclosure tomorrow – costs borne not just by families with troubled loans, but by their neighbors and communities and by our economy as a whole. Given the magnitude of these costs, it is a price well worth paying.

Third, we will take major steps to keep mortgage rates low for millions of middle class families looking to secure new mortgages.

Today, most new home loans are backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which guarantee loans and set standards to keep mortgage rates low and to keep mortgage financing available and predictable for middle class families. This function is profoundly important, especially now as we grapple with a crisis that would only worsen if we were to allow further disruptions in our mortgage markets.

Therefore, using the funds already approved by Congress for this purpose, the Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve will continue to purchase Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgage-backed securities so that there is stability and liquidity in the marketplace. Through its existing authority Treasury will provide up to $200 billion in capital to ensure that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac can continue to stabilize markets and hold mortgage rates down.

We’re also going to work with Fannie and Freddie on other strategies to bolster the mortgage markets, like working with state housing finance agencies to increase their liquidity. And as we seek to ensure that these institutions continue to perform what is a vital function on behalf of middle class families, we also need to maintain transparency and strong oversight so that they do so in responsible and effective ways.

Fourth, we will pursue a wide range of reforms designed to help families stay in their homes and avoid foreclosure.

My administration will continue to support reforming our bankruptcy rules so that we allow judges to reduce home mortgages on primary residences to their fair market value – as long as borrowers pay their debts under a court-ordered plan. That’s the rule for investors who own two, three, and four homes. It should be the rule for ordinary homeowners too, as an alternative to foreclosure.

In addition, as part of the recovery plan I signed into law yesterday, we are going to award $2 billion in competitive grants to communities that are bringing together stakeholders and testing new and innovative ways to prevent foreclosures. Communities have shown a lot of initiative, taking responsibility for this crisis when many others have not. Supporting these neighborhood efforts is exactly what we should be doing.

Taken together, the provisions of this plan will help us end this crisis and preserve for millions of families their stake in the American Dream. But we must also acknowledge the limits of this plan.

Our housing crisis was born of eroding home values, but also of the erosion of our common values. It was brought about by big banks that traded in risky mortgages in return for profits that were literally too good to be true; by lenders who knowingly took advantage of homebuyers; by homebuyers who knowingly borrowed too much from lenders; by speculators who gambled on rising prices; and by leaders in our nation’s capital who failed to act amidst a deepening crisis.

So solving this crisis will require more than resources – it will require all of us to take responsibility. Government must take responsibility for setting rules of the road that are fair and fairly enforced. Banks and lenders must be held accountable for ending the practices that got us into this crisis in the first place. Individuals must take responsibility for their own actions. And all of us must learn to live within our means again.

These are the values that have defined this nation. These are values that have given substance to our faith in the American Dream. And these are the values that we must restore now at this defining moment.

It will not be easy. But if we move forward with purpose and resolve – with a deepened appreciation for how fundamental the American Dream is and how fragile it can be when we fail in our collective responsibilities – then I am confident we will overcome this crisis and once again secure that dream for ourselves and for generations to come.

Thank you, God Bless you, and God bless America.

Obama’s plan for foreclosures

In Obama, stimulus on February 18, 2009 at 5:54 AM

Today President Obama announces his plan to halt the tide of home foreclosures that threatens to drown the economy. The plan’s goal is to lower the monthly payments homeowners make through refinancing or restructuring their mortgages. According to TheStreet.com, more than 2 million Americans had their homes foreclosed in 2008 and up to 10 million more are expected to do the same in the coming years. As Obama’s Foreclosure Plan, another website, points out that only by effectively reducing what homeowners must pay will foreclosures be halted because mortgage payments are too high for them to afford. The Obama Administration is willing to stake its reputation on this approach because it will lay aside at least $50 billion for this purpose.

Obama to announce foreclosure plan

In economics, Obama, stimulus on February 17, 2009 at 12:11 PM

Tomorrow in Phoenix, AZ, President Obama is expected to unveil his plan to help the country’s homeowners who are struggling with foreclosures. His plan is expected to cost between $50 and $100 billion. The tide of foreclosures is threatening to swamp the economy. RealtyTrac is a private firm tracking foreclosures around the country. They provide some of the best data of national foreclosure trends (you have to be a subscriber to see some of the data.) However, a recent NPR report raises some questions about undercounting hard-hit rural areas.

The issue is more complicated than just foreclosures. As the website, Bankaholic, the securitization of the failed mortgages is really at the heart of the problem. At the heart of the securitization problem are the so-called toxic derivatives, which the Bankaholic site describes. A big example of the suspect financial instruments that brought us to our current mess are the credit default swaps (CDS). The following is from the Bankaholic site.

What are CDS
Let’s say you just bought a shiny new sports car for $100k. You can buy insurance on the car by paying an insurance company $500 a year. The insurance company promises to buy you a new sports car if you total your car.

The insurance is like a CDS, except CDSs insure corporate bonds in the event that a corporation goes bust.

However, with a CDS, you can buy insurance even if you don’t own the bond; this is called speculation. When you buy a CDS w/o owning the underlying bond, you are essentially betting that the corporation will go bankrupt. This is like buying car insurance for your friends shiny new Ferrari, hoping to collect in the event that he crashes. Some hedge funds even allegedly speculate in CDS while sabotaging their underlying corporate stocks to increase the chances of bankruptcy. This is the equivalent of cutting the brakes on your friend’s Ferrari.

Keynesian approach might just dig a deeper hole

In economics, stimulus on February 12, 2009 at 11:27 AM
ST. LOUIS POST-DISPATCH

John Maynard Keynes has never been more popular; we may be about to learn whether he was right.

Whatever you think of the $827 billion economic stimulus bill that’s scheduled for a Senate vote today, you can’t argue with one thing: It’s the biggest Keynesian experiment ever tried.

The great economist argued that massive government spending was the only way out of a severe economic crisis like the Great Depression of the 1930s. Much simplified, his idea was that when consumers and businesses aren’t willing to spend, the government must.

The folks in Washington have heard that message loud and clear. They’re all too ready to abandon all fiscal discipline. The only debate has been just how much is enough, and how to divide the largesse between tax cuts and spending increases.

Keynes himself might have grown impatient with the partisan nature of this debate. He once said that the government could stimulate the economy by paying people to dig holes and fill them back in. In other words, any spending would do, no matter how wasteful.

The problem is, no one has had much opportunity to validate that part of Keynes’ theory. Some economists think government spending eased the pain of the Great Depression; others think it prolonged the agony. In any event, we haven’t had an opportunity to repeat the Keynesian experiment on a large scale.

Until now.

To listen to the Democrats in Congress, you’d think there should be no debate about the power of Keynesian deficit spending. Just do it, they say.

Plenty of economists, though, are still willing to engage in that debate. About 200 of them, including three Nobel Prize winners, signed an advertisement declaring that the huge spending package is a mistake.

click here for the complete article

Stimulus Watch website

In economics, Obama, stimulus on February 12, 2009 at 11:22 AM

There is a new website devoted to keeping tabs on how the stimulus package will be spent. The following is the blurb from the website:
StimulusWatch.org was built to help the new administration keep its pledge to invest stimulus money smartly, and to hold public officials to account for the taxpayer money they spend. We do this by allowing you, citizens around the country with local knowledge about the proposed “shovel-ready” projects in your city, to find, discuss and rate those projects. These projects are not part of the stimulus bill. They are candidates for funding by federal grant programs once the bill passes.”

Unemployment figures are under-reported

In economics, stimulus, Unemployment on February 12, 2009 at 11:06 AM

Last night, in class we talked about under-reporting of the unemployment figures. This is the subject of this Economic Policy Institute website article. The report asserts that actual employment is weaker than the official unemployment rates suggest. the real unemployment rate is probably closer to 10 %. Even at 7.6%, this is the highest unemployment rate in over sixteen years. In his address to the nation on Monday night, President Obama said that the jobs lost in January alone was equal to all of the workers in Maine. Even more startling is the fact that since November 2008, 2.8 million people have lost their jobs. Since the recession started in December 2007, 3.5 million people have become unemployed–that’s more than the total population of Chicago! Bear in mind, however, that in calculating these numbers they did not include those who have dropped out of the job market (or never entered) and it doesn’t include the under-employed.

State Budgets

In public finance, stimulus on February 12, 2009 at 7:47 AM

Here’s to Galbraith’s quote Dr. Cropf read Wednesday evening…

States are cutting budgets, Nevada 38%.

One of the questions that came to mind is Okun’s, is there a time where we should spend money even though it is not efficient, or stimulative in today’s parlance?

– Kathleen

Did the New Deal end the Great Depression?

In economics, public finance, stimulus on February 10, 2009 at 2:33 PM

Two posts ago, I mentioned that Milton Friedman declared that the Great Depression was the result of federal government mismanagement, a claim that Paul Krugman disputes. On the subject of whether government programs helped pull the country out of Depression, there has been considerable controversy. A book by Amity Shlaes called The Forgotten Man, provides a skeptical account of the Keynesian viewpoint that government spending lifted the economy out of the dumps. This blog, The Edge of the American West, makes a persuasive case, based on the data, that the New Deal improved the country’s economic condition considerably. The article also makes a very compelling case for reading carefully between the lines and paying close attention to footnotes, something every self-respecting scholar should know.